gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 20, 2015 23:28:11 GMT
Hello All...I wanted to alert you to a new opportunity on EUR/USD. I have been watching this develop for the last few days and now at the open of a new week decided to enter a long Weekly chart shows that we are at the top of a balance zone and looking to break above it once again. The daily chart actually did break above and close, but the following day has retreated back into the balance zone. The intraday chart shows a clearly defined balance area where price broke above it and has returned now to retest this same area. I have entered a long position with a 2nd position pending on the lower side of the intraday balance zone. Stop is below the last intraday swing low.
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Post by eeddss11 on Sept 21, 2015 3:01:15 GMT
Very nice setup,
This looks like a safe trade all the way up to the bottom of balance on the 4 hour chart around the 1.13900 mark.If we can break through this there looks to be a bit more upside and possibly a bit of a runner.
I am in as well so good luck to us both
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Post by gristar on Sept 21, 2015 7:17:08 GMT
Following and learning.
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Post by bodring on Sept 21, 2015 11:58:26 GMT
Hi, I think E/U is going after your stop.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 12:06:35 GMT
Hi, I think E/U is going after your stop. Yes it does appear that way. I have been filled on both entries now and price is dipping below the intraday balance zone. I'll just have to wait this one out...I may have been "fooled" a bit, as price looks like it wants to return back into the larger range and head back down. Only thing to do now is wait.
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Post by bodring on Sept 21, 2015 13:36:02 GMT
Do you use any volume in your analysis? My viev on EU is down. It was a massive manioulation on the last week's news. A lot of volume on the highs. This might be the continuation of the downtrend. Just my opinion, I may also be wrong.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 14:48:42 GMT
Stopped out on EUR/USD...looks like a return back into the balance zone...weekly balance zone is getting tighter.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 14:56:22 GMT
Do you use any volume in your analysis? My viev on EU is down. It was a massive manioulation on the last week's news. A lot of volume on the highs. This might be the continuation of the downtrend. Just my opinion, I may also be wrong. Forex volume is NOT volume in the true sense of the word. It is "tick" volume, which means the number you see as volume is really the number of transactions that are occurring ON YOUR BROKER's platform. Not the volume in the actual market. It does not truly reveal how many lots ($100,000 increments) are being transacted. So as an example: If you and I exchange a mini lot ($10,000) and George Soros and Toyota exchanged 20 lots ($2,000,000) Those are both counted as a single transaction. However I'm sure you can see that the more significant transaction would be the one with greater volume-in lots. So, when I look at order flow, this concept accounts for volume, because it is the greater volume of the buyers or sellers that is driving price up or down. It liberates me from looking at yet another meaningless indicator on my chart. As well, the volume number I do get come only from my broker, and not from the market...as there ARE no volume data from the Forex Market, because it is decentralized. When I am trading futures however, I DO look at volume in the form of volume candles...not time candles. So each candle forms after a certain amount of contracts are traded...NOT after a certain amount of time (1 hr, 15 min, 1 day, etc). Thus the signals generated by order flow are far more accurate, because it is automatically correlated to volume. So for FOREX we are stuck with time charts which is another reason why I use larger charts so as to keep thing a little more consistent.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 17:14:38 GMT
OK...this market is beating the crap out of me...but I am going to try this again...I am asking myself WHY? I am so enamored with a long position...so to answer that question, I still come back to the daily chart. While the latest high is NOT a higher high, we are still making higher lows, and that is what is prompting me to consider the buy side. Below I have entered another long, with an additional position to be added at the lower intraday balance zone. I am entering on these areas because this is where I am seeing the balance zones, and am anticipating buying to come in at these levels. So, I guess we'll see how this one goes.
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Post by bodring on Sept 21, 2015 19:59:02 GMT
But today's low made a lower low on the daily. And if we consider bull's or bear's strength then we can see more of bear's momentum.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 20:42:10 GMT
As with everything I guess it comes down to a matter of personal interpretation...which is why I always try to allow my students and anyone else I speak with to "find your own path" when trading. I understand why you would say that today's low is a lower low, but this is what I see when I talk about rising lows. Each of these lows formed after a significant seller's market balanced and then moved higher. That is why my opinion on this market is still bullish, however the larger time frames, weekly and monthly are balanced, so by that frame of reference the market is ranging and may start moving downward very quickly. My interpretation of price activity is fallible, as with everyone, I may be wrong but I am willing to risk a small amount to see if I am reading the order flow correctly. This often happens, I get an idea in my head and I am wrong no matter what I do, but that is part of my written trading plan. You may wish to do that differently. I encourage you to use your personal logs and trade stats to study the issue and create rules for your own trading that correspond with how YOU see the market flow and take action.
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Post by bodring on Sept 22, 2015 8:39:54 GMT
Hi everybody, I expect some small retrace on EU. But the bias is still down.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 22, 2015 12:03:23 GMT
Hi everybody, I expect some small retrace on EU. But the bias is still down. Hello bodring...thank you for participating...perhaps you wouldn't mind sharing a screen shot with a brief explanation of why your bias is bearish?
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Post by bodring on Sept 22, 2015 12:50:21 GMT
U/C up, E/U down Attachments:
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Post by bodring on Sept 22, 2015 12:53:07 GMT
This is how I see the markets.
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