gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152 
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Post by gspajon on Sept 25, 2015 13:22:35 GMT
Hello all, I thought I would start posting my monthly stats here on my futures day trading. Many people have asked what kind of performance can be realized from trading smaller time frames...I would again emphasize that the order flow is the same on any chart as long as you can "see" it. So for the record, I trade constant volume charts on the DOW e-mini and use multiple charts to find entries...just the same as multiple time frames. The charts are 500 (contracts), 1,500 (contracts) and 5,000 (contracts) So here are the stats from the month of Sept 2015: 36.89% gain on account in Sept.| Wins vs Losses | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Expectancy | | 76.92% | 26.28 pts | 8.22 pts | 22.04 pts | | Av. time (win) | Av time (loser) | Avg RRR | Cash Ratio | | 20 min | 9 min | 1:3.18 | 11.53 | | Avg Drawdown | Prob of 2xR | Prob 3xR | Prob 4xR | | 5.8 pts | 83.33% | 60% | 44% |
Av. time (win) = Average time in trade on winning trades
Av. time (loser) = Average time in trade on losing trades
Av. RRR = Overall Risk-to-Reward Ratio. For every pip I risk I gain 3.18 in return
Cash Ratio = For every dollar I lose I make $11.53 back
Avg Drawdown = On average I draw down 5.8 pips on winning trades...before going on to profit
Prob 2xR = Probability of gaining two times my risk
Prob 3xR = Probability of gaining three times my risk
Prob 4xR = Probability of gaining four times my riskThese are the kind of stats that all traders should have ready at their finger tips. If you don't know how you are doing you will never be able to improve your skills. These kinds of stats also allow you to adjust or improve your rules set to meet you goals in trading. These stats represent a large improvement over the past two months when I made one small adjustment to my rule set as to WHEN I would set a limit on trade, and WHERE the limit should be based on the time of day. |
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Post by eeddss11 on Sept 28, 2015 6:11:24 GMT
Very nice results.Very,Very nice
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 28, 2015 12:42:33 GMT
Very nice results.Very,Very nice Thank you Peter...again these results represent a very small rule change, but it is a great example of what can happen when you use your stats to see where you are...then the problem will have an almost obvious answer. The point being if you don't keep stats you will never know. It may also interest you to know that the rule change, was more when to STOP trading, than when to trade. |
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Post by TheGMan on Oct 8, 2015 12:41:24 GMT
Yes I to am impressed. Great returns with little DD Great trading Admin! Is that a spread sheet that you created yourself or is it provided from your broker? Would love to use something like that. I am attaching an indicator here that tracks performance in MT4. Simply add it to a chart (preferably a pair you don't trade) then go to properties & change all colors to "none" then go to your history tab and set to "all history" or which ever period you want to show up in the track record. That's it! TrackRecord.ex4 (15.93 KB) |
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 8, 2015 13:02:16 GMT
Yes I to am impressed. Great returns with little DD Great trading Admin! Is that a spread sheet that you created yourself or is it provided from your broker? Would love to use something like that. I am attaching an indicator here that tracks performance in MT4. Simply add it to a chart (preferably a pair you don't trade) then go to properties & change all colors to "none" then go to your history tab and set to "all history" or which ever period you want to show up in the track record. That's it! Thank you GMan, it is a spread sheet that I use to track different results that I am currently working to improve. Over the previous 2-3 months, I was having difficulty in waiting for returns that "never came", and thus passing up opportunities to profit in the mean time. So I started tracking the availability of profits and the probability that the larger profits would come...I discovered there was a larger probability and profitability in simply taking 2xR or 3xR profits when they were available (depending on time of day), and then just turning the computer off until the next day. It prevented over trading and allowed me to keep more of the profits that I had made. The data collection continues and I am on the last 1/2 of the spread sheet. (at least 100 trades)...so the total compilation will be available next month. But the results thus far are very encouraging... A simple rule change is the result...get your pips, and take the rest of the day off. Tomorrow do the same. |
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Post by TheGMan on Oct 8, 2015 13:52:05 GMT
Truer words have not been spoken! I have to agree... Over trading will blow up accts. This I know from experience.  |
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Post by gowiththeflow on Oct 9, 2015 5:25:41 GMT
Hello all, I thought I would start posting my monthly stats here on my futures day trading. Many people have asked what kind of performance can be realized from trading smaller time frames...I would again emphasize that the order flow is the same on any chart as long as you can "see" it. So for the record, I trade constant volume charts on the DOW e-mini and use multiple charts to find entries...just the same as multiple time frames. The charts are 500 (contracts), 1,500 (contracts) and 5,000 (contracts) So here are the stats from the month of Sept 2015: 36.89% gain on account in Sept.| Wins vs Losses | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Expectancy | | 76.92% | 26.28 pts | 8.22 pts | 22.04 pts | | Av. time (win) | Av time (loser) | Avg RRR | Cash Ratio | | 20 min | 9 min | 1:3.18 | 11.53 | | Avg Drawdown | Prob of 2xR | Prob 3xR | Prob 4xR | | 5.8 pts | 83.33% | 60% | 44% |
Av. time (win) = Average time in trade on winning trades
Av. time (loser) = Average time in trade on losing trades
Av. RRR = Overall Risk-to-Reward Ratio. For every pip I risk I gain 3.18 in return
Cash Ratio = For every dollar I lose I make $11.53 back
Avg Drawdown = On average I draw down 5.8 pips on winning trades...before going on to profit
Prob 2xR = Probability of gaining two times my risk
Prob 3xR = Probability of gaining three times my risk
Prob 4xR = Probability of gaining four times my riskThese are the kind of stats that all traders should have ready at their finger tips. If you don't know how you are doing you will never be able to improve your skills. These kinds of stats also allow you to adjust or improve your rules set to meet you goals in trading. These stats represent a large improvement over the past two months when I made one small adjustment to my rule set as to WHEN I would set a limit on trade, and WHERE the limit should be based on the time of day. Hi gspajon; Impressive results! I also keep track of my Trading results in an excel spread sheet, unfortunately, I'm not good with excel, apart from the basics, could you up-load a copy of the spread sheet you use please. I don't want to see your entries, of course, just the formulas you use to keep track of your results. Thanks in advance. |
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 9, 2015 12:47:57 GMT
Steve I have a spread sheet that I can give you but it does not track all the things I mentioned above. I give this spread sheet to my students to get them started on data collection to assist them in making a trade action plan. It does include the basics...time in trade, avg win/loss, win-to-loss ratio, expectancy, RRR, and cash ratio. I am happy to send it to you...just pm me with your email address. (it requires a bit of explanation)
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 22, 2015 14:10:21 GMT
Hello Everyone, October has been a difficult month for me and one in which I must say that it really tested my discipline and resolve to NOT change things just because I had more losses than usual. But I have finally made my minimum goal of 20% for the month, one week ahead of schedule. So I have decided to tally my stats and take the next week off from trading and try to clear my head. Further, its my wife's birthday next week end and I will need to concentrate on her instead of locking myself up in my office.  25.36% gain on account in October| Wins vs Losses | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Expectancy | 62.5%
| 28.78 pts | 8.07 pts | 21.01 pts | | Av Time (win) | Av Time (loser) | Avg. RRR | Cash Ratio | | 17 min | 7 min | 3.57 | 8.00 | | Avg Drawdown | Prob of 2xR | Prob of 3xR | Prob of 4xR | | 4.76 pts | 87.27% | 66.7% | 41.7% |
Expectancy = calculation that determines average productivity of all trades...win or lose, there is an average gain of 21 pts.
Av. time (win) = Average time in trade on winning trades
Av. time (loser) = Average time in trade on losing trades
Av. RRR = Overall Risk-to-Reward Ratio. For every pip I risk I gain 3.57 in return
Cash Ratio = For every dollar I lose I make $8.00 back
Avg Drawdown = On average I draw down 4.75 pips on winning trades...before going on to profit
Prob 2xR = Probability of gaining two times my risk
Prob 3xR = Probability of gaining three times my risk
Prob 4xR = Probability of gaining four times my risk
You can easily see that compared to last month, my win to loss ration dropped significantly, however I was (thankfully) able to control the losses so they weren't so disruptive. Thus I was able to keep most of the stats consistent. This month the gains did NOT come easily and have left me a bit tired. So as I have met my personal requirements, and have seen that my stats are consistent, I am treating myself to a week off... |
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Dec 3, 2015 15:38:40 GMT
Hello Everyone...I have been absent lately from this thread...personal issues and family time have lead to more time away from the computer. But I wanted to post my end of month stats for November 2015. Remember these are results from my futures trading on the E-Mini DOW. 17.7% gain on account in November
| Wins vs Losses | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Expectancy | | 76.67% | 27.35 pts | 10.14 pts | 23.33 pts | | Av. time (win) | Av time (loser) | Avg. RRR | Cash Ratio | | 13 min | 24 min | 1:2.7 | 9.73 | | Avg. Drawdown | Prob. of 2xR | Prob 3xR | Prob 4xR | | 5.01 pts | 89.16% | 66.2% | 41.9% |
To help explain some of these stats:Expectancy = calculation that determines average productivity of all trades...win or lose there is an average gain of 23.33 ptsAv. Time (win) = Average time in trade on winning tradesAv. Time (loser) = Average time in trade on winning tradesAv. RRR = Overall Risk-To-Reward Ratio. For every pip I risk I gain 2.7 in returnCash Ratio = For every dollar I lose I make $9.73 backAvg. Drawdown = On average I draw down 5 pts. on the winning trades before going on to profitProb 2xR = Probability of gaining two times my risk...the same for 3xR and 4xR)For those of you who might be looking at these stats and wondering why there is a decreasing level of percent gain on account. It is that because each month's gain is measured against the previous month's balance, and because the balance is increasing every month, you will see that each month's gain is a smaller and smaller percent of the entire balance. This is natural because I have not increased the position size...I have left the position size the same (1 contract per trade). However if you look at this from the original balance you will see that I have doubled the account in the last three months. The balances are as shown here: | Month | Profit/Loss | Balance | % P/L (MoM) | %P/L (yearly) | | | $10,000.00 | | | | Sept. 2015 | $3,688.60 | $13,688.60 | 36.89% | 36.89% | | Oct. 2015 | $3,475.60 | $17,164.20 | 25.39% | 71.64% | | Nov. 2015 | $2,946.40 | $20,110.60 | 17.17% | 101.11% |
Note that the balances are largely consistent, except that November was a short month (only 3 weeks) due to the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US. (Leading to my family commitments and time away from the computer) As well a comparison of each month's stats as posted here will show that on a month-by-month basis, the trading results are very consistent. And THAT is our bread and butter friends...consistency. So that being done I have started another study to see if I can determine the best way to deal with stop outs and use them to my advantage...that's right to my ADVANTAGE. This month of December will be devoted to learning with no further live trading this year. I am more than happy to answer any questions (should you have any) about these stats and how I measured them. As well, to show you how using these stats has dramatically improved my trading execution...and above all discipline. |
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Post by suaveston on Dec 30, 2020 16:46:52 GMT
Missed this thread by 5 years, kudos to you; my eyes can now see clearly.
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Post by TheGMan on Dec 30, 2020 18:20:52 GMT
Missed this thread by 5 years, kudos to you; my eyes can now see clearly. Better late than never 😊 |
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