gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 21, 2015 22:33:20 GMT
Hello All, I am tracking an opportunity on the AUD/USD. You can see here that price formed a clear balance zone on the weekly chart and dropped below. Over the last two days, price came up and retested that zone twice, forming another balance zone on the daily chart. Price has now dropped below THAT zone, indicating a supply imbalance and had closed outside. I have placed two pending orders as seen here, and am waiting to see which if any trigger. I am anticipating further imbalance to continue on the supply (seller's) side.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 22, 2015 15:17:29 GMT
Aussie not cooperating...looks like I missed the good entry...Oh well...I'll leave it there for another 48 hrs to see what pans out.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 23, 2015 13:01:53 GMT
This market continues to fall...thus I have cancelled my sell orders and they were never hit. I will look to go long toward the bottom here IF I see the market balance and break higher.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 23, 2015 18:10:30 GMT
Hello friends...I have been alerted to a better way to post images here on this forum that will help us all in a number of ways. If you all wouldn't mind to post your screen shots this way I would really appreciate it. When posting an image please do the following: If you have Metatrader: right click on your chart and chose, "save as picture" Select "active chart (as is)...or any of the selections you wish Check the box marked "Post image online..." Click OK If you have another trading software, go to app.prntscr.com/en/download.html and download their simple and easy to use screen capture. Once this is done you will be taken to the photo that is stored on the web...copy the image address and do the following: Click on the button (inside the forum post editor) "insert image" Paste the image address in the field "image URL" Then click insert image. This will help us in a number of ways...(1) it will make the images much bigger so we don't have to go back and forth between the image and any commentary (2) it will save storage space on those images that are not loaded to the forum...and this helps us stay FREE... Thanks for you help!!
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Sept 29, 2015 14:41:03 GMT
Short opportunity on AUD/USD Daily chart showing a balance zone, intraday charts show an even smaller balance zone that broke yesterday and is now retesting that zone to see if more sellers are there. I have entered a small short, and have a pending short a little higher up. Stop is above this week's high.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 1, 2015 15:06:58 GMT
Well OK...THAT was embarrassing...I guess it wasn't too surprising to get stopped out on a short so close to a 6 year low...OK, I too lost sight of the bigger picture. So now I see another signal for a long position. Note how the daily balance area formed a "double bottom" on the intraday charts and has broken the balance area indicating buying dominance. I have placed pending orders for longs as you see here.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 1, 2015 17:17:58 GMT
First 1/2 of the position is triggered
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Post by gowiththeflow on Oct 3, 2015 14:09:49 GMT
This, for what it's worth, is how I'm looking at AUD/USD
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 8, 2015 0:08:36 GMT
Hello all...its been a bit since I posted...sorry for the absence..been fighting off the flu. Good news though...the long entry on this market has advanced well with narry a pull back in sight I have locked 113 pips with this stop and it appears as though we may be seeing some kind of retrace starting now...
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Post by gowiththeflow on Oct 8, 2015 6:21:11 GMT
Hello all...its been a bit since I posted...sorry for the absence..been fighting off the flu. Good news though...the long entry on this market has advanced well with narry a pull back in sight I have locked 113 pips with this stop and it appears as though we may be seeing some kind of retrace starting now... Hi gspajon, Do you watch the Blue (Buy Orders) Grey (Sell Orders) I have marked on my Charts? Looking at the chart below will help with understanding my observations below. I see, in a down Trend (AUD/USD) a Balance Level is created by Buy Orders entering the Market and being Balanced by the Selling Volume. If Sell Orders consume the Buy Orders, that have accumulated, there is a Bearish Imbalance and the Market drops lower. The Level of previous Balance, created by Buy Orders entering the Market, is now taken over by Pending Sell Orders. I have just started reading Time Compression Trading by JAJ it's opening my eyes to how the Market is constructed and what causes it to move as it does.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 8, 2015 12:45:54 GMT
You are quite correct in that price is now in an area where I would also anticipate selling to come in and "push back" against the buying. thus my stop locking some pips...this is always a bit of a compromise, to take profit or hold and wait for a break... A quick look at the daily and weekly charts show this entire "range" is really a larger balance zone that is starting to form. Like all the balance zones, sellers are at the top, and buyers at the bottom. Assuming the high has been hit on this particular run up, we are seeing lower highs and higher lows...Whether there are enough buyers to continue pushing price higher is anyone's guess. The selling market flow you mention is obvious, but this market is near a 6 year low. It is typical to see large volatility at major swing points. It is also clear that the dominant trading on the FX market of late (over the past 5-6 weeks) has been scalpers and extremely short term traders. So for the time being I am taking signals off the smaller intraday charts and taking small profits, while trying to give it enough room to break...IF that's what it is going to do. I suspect that if price can work its way up beyond the highs seen on the daily and intraday charts here, there will be a "whoosh" as the longer term shorts stop out. Time will tell.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 8, 2015 13:07:43 GMT
Just re-read this...and to me it sounded a bit haughty...I didn't mean to come across that way...It is a perfectly "legitimate" view point to remain bearish on this pair considering that buying has not yet risen to the point where it can effectively overwhelm selling at the top of this large balance zone. I may be a bit aggressive here with my bullish view point, but that is only my opinion...you and others that have a bearish view point are correct as well...As long as you realize that you are selling near significant lows...
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 8, 2015 15:31:15 GMT
intraday charts are starting to move up...so my stop has been readjusted to lock 130 pips
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Post by gowiththeflow on Oct 8, 2015 15:55:14 GMT
You are quite correct in that price is now in an area where I would also anticipate selling to come in and "push back" against the buying. thus my stop locking some pips...this is always a bit of a compromise, to take profit or hold and wait for a break... A quick look at the daily and weekly charts show this entire "range" is really a larger balance zone that is starting to form. Like all the balance zones, sellers are at the top, and buyers at the bottom. Assuming the high has been hit on this particular run up, we are seeing lower highs and higher lows...Whether there are enough buyers to continue pushing price higher is anyone's guess. The selling market flow you mention is obvious, but this market is near a 6 year low. It is typical to see large volatility at major swing points. It is also clear that the dominant trading on the FX market of late (over the past 5-6 weeks) has been scalpers and extremely short term traders. So for the time being I am taking signals off the smaller intraday charts and taking small profits, while trying to give it enough room to break...IF that's what it is going to do. I suspect that if price can work its way up beyond the highs seen on the daily and intraday charts here, there will be a "whoosh" as the longer term shorts stop out. Time will tell. Hi gspajon; Like you say we don't know which way the Market will go from here. I'd certainly like to see those highs taken out and the Late Sellers Buy Stops triggered. If that happened I'd be looking for a Bearish Test of the highs before looking to add to my Long position. The way you worded this came across fine to me.
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gspajon
Order Flow Class
Posts: 152
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Post by gspajon on Oct 9, 2015 12:38:29 GMT
Update on AUD/USD: the intraday and daily charts look like we are getting the "whoosh". Buyers have pushed the price solidly up into the last weekly balance zone. As we still have the US session to go yet, I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions...but it appears I may have to go down to ever smaller charts to trail my stop. I will try to do that before the close today. Position is currently 300 pips positive.
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